Mindful of California’s electoral importance, he picked a Californian running mate, Governor Earl Warren. Last week, in what the pundit Mark Halperin calls the “significant six” states — Florida, Georgia, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio and Texas — Biden was ahead in just three, and his leads were within the margin of error. The economy is recovering, but after a savage recession. In the Electoral College, Truman won 303–189. The gun purchase data were the only reliable poll. A jubilant Harry Truman held up a Chicago newspaper emblazoned with the (erroneous) headline, "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN," St. Louis, November 4, 1948. What should have worried Dewey was that his lead in the Gallup poll shrank from 12 points in late August to 9 points by mid-October. The GOP’s 1948 election postmortem highlighted — as for the Democrats in 2016 — the perils of ebullient polling: In the words of historian Simon Topping, “Predictions of a Dewey landslide may have actually deterred many Republicans from voting.” But turnout was low on the Democratic side, too. The average American’s probability of catching Covid-19 this year has been much lower (less than 3%). In his book “Out of the Jaws of Victory,” the journalist Jules Abels noted that Dewey’s pitch for unity was “an issue which had no visceral appeal to the average American. Try Initiatives such as the “Never Trump” movement and the Lincoln Project would not have surprised Truman, who likewise faced grave doubts over his electability from powerful figures within the Democratic Party. America by 1946 were sick of the Democrats, who had held the US presidency since 1932. Politically, the small town is basically populated by Republicans - other than a few furtive Democrats - and the summer of 1948 … “You are the government,” Truman told rapt audiences in cornfields and dusty rail towns. Truman came second in all nine of the Gallup Poll’s post-convention surveys. Account & Lists Account Returns & Orders. His re-election would be a surprise right up there with 1948 — or with 1992 in the U.K., where the Conservatives under John Major defied a recession to defeat Labour for the fourth consecutive election. How much do you worry about the coronavirus? On the eve of the 1948 election, America was a fractured country. Perhaps the probability of a Trump win in 2020 is only 11%. NBC News constructed a cardboard model of the White House with two elephants that would emerge when Dewey’s victory was called. By morning, the headline was proven wrong. The obvious antecedent to Dewey Defeats Truman is Baime’s own The Accidental President (2017), which applies the author’s signature gift for gripping historical narrative to Truman’s tumultuous first four months in office following Franklin Roosevelt’s sudden death. DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN is arguably the most famous headline in the history of the Chicago Tribune newspaper and is every publisher’s nightmare on every election night. Baime is also the author of another great micro-history, “The Accidental President”, also about Harry Truman, and his first four months in office. Buy It Now. Sherman A1: Jul 2020 #1: The mother of a friend of mine was a secretary. C $636.71. The average of state errors undershot Truman’s election result by 4% to 5%. Racism was rampant, foreign relations were … -- It is a newspaper front page, dated Nov. 3, 1948, and it carries the immortal headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman.”. Did you know that Katharine Hepburn, Frank Lloyd Wright and Charlie Chaplin endorsed Wallace? Dewey Defeats Truman! Quotes delayed at least 15 minutes. FBI Director J. Edgar Hoover volunteered the services of the bureau to aid his opponent’s campaign. Niall Ferguson is the Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University and a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. Truman was politically finished — hence the pun: “To err is Truman.”. “What’s the Use of Going Through with the Election?” was the caption of a typical cartoon two weeks before Election Day. Harry S Truman Signed Framed 1962 Letter & Dewey Defeats Photo Display JSA . The Detroit Free Press dismissed Harry S. Truman as “intellectually unqualified” to remain president. Click here to read the text of Truman’s 11/4/1948 remarks in St. Louis, Vincennes, Indiana and Cincinnati, Ohio. ETF and Mutual Fund data provided by Morningstar, Inc. Dow Jones Terms & Conditions: http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/html/tandc/indexestandcs.html. On this day in 1948, in one of the least foreseen upsets in … November 11, 2020 Kevin Schulman, Founder, DonorVoice and DVCanvass Conventional wisdom and a veteran political analyst who had predicted the winner in four of the five prior presidentials leading up to this 1948 election were clear; not only would Dewey win but Republicans would retain control of the House and Senate. “I’m calling this trip a crusade. A masterful retelling of a legend and famous headline of modern American history—Harry Truman’s upset victory over Thomas E. Dewey in the 1948 presidential election. And it was not only white working-class voters who felt this way. FORTUNE is a trademark of Fortune Media IP Limited, registered in the U.S. and other countries. If Trump wins all eight of those states, it doesn’t matter if he loses Michigan and Wisconsin: He’s a two-term president. To name just two, there are fewer undecideds going into the final phase of this election, and there has been unprecedented early mail-in voting. The Los Angeles Times called him “the most complete fumbler and blunderer this nation has seen in high office in a long time.” Alistair Cooke of the Manchester Guardian published an article on the day of the election entitled “Harry S. Truman: A Study of a Failure.”. Thomas Mallon's novel, "Dewey Defeats Truman", is a marvelous look at a small town in the throes of change. 11/02/2018 12:00 AM EDT. The genius math professor who ran Renaissance Technologies figured out how to reliably beat the market, but the rules still apply to everyone else. But “Dewey Defeats Truman,” from the Chicago Daily Tribune, is perhaps the most memorable headline in American political history, and it is the … But I can also see the despised underdog incumbent’s triumphant grin as he holds that erroneous front page aloft. The governor of New York since 1943, Dewey had unsuccessfully run for president twice before (failing to secure the Republican nomination in 1940, and losing to Franklin Roosevelt in 1944). Have a confidential tip for our reporters? The series of “Dewey Defeats Truman” photos has become an icon of tenacity, perseverance, self-confidence and success. President Truman was elected with a comfortable margin of 49.6 percent of the popular vote to Dewey’s 45.1 percent. Going into the 1948 election cycle, the president’s approval rating hovered in the low- to mid-30s (below Trump’s 35% approval nadir in December 2017). Set in 1948 in Owosso, Michigan - the real hometown of Thomas Dewey - the townspeople are transitioning from the war years to the Cold War years. Dewey Defeats Truman Newspaper collectibles for sale including the iconic paper from the thChicago Tribune 1948 in which they incorrectly predicted that Thomas Dewey would defeat Harry Truman in the presidential election. The 14th Amendment could be his barrier to a future run. Ironically, this example is a downplay of the trope. When the decision to print this paper was made, returns were coming in very slowly and time was running out before the deadline for the edition. Free shipping and pickup in store on eligible orders. Click to read the full review of Dewey Defeats Truman: The 1948 Election and the Battle for America's Soul in New York Journal of Books. My Halloween treat for one and all is 72 years old, dating back to just before Biden’s sixth birthday. Progressive Democrats, getting cold feet over Truman’s record on civil rights and the Cold War, defected with former Vice President Henry Wallace to form the Progressive Party, while Dixiecrats rallied around Senator Strom Thurmond and the States’ Rights Democratic Party. Funny story written by Stefano M. Stefano. On Oct. 29, he told a roaring crowd in Queens to “throw the Galluping polls right into the ash can.”. Dewey Defeats Truman: The Rarely Told Story of Chicago Tribune's Most Famous Issue. For pollsters, pundits, and the press, Democrat Harry Truman’s surprise victory over Republican Thomas E. Dewey in 1948 is, or ought to be, an enduring reminder about the perils of … Those 120 days proved as intense a trial by fire as any president has had. Or that onetime farmer … A shift of a mere 29,000 votes of 10,661,000 cast (0.27%) in three critical states would have handed Dewey electoral victory. In Dewey Defeats Truman, A. J. Baime sheds light on one of the most action-packed six months in American history, as Truman both triumphs and oversees watershed events--the passing of the Marshall plan, the acknowledgement of Israel as a new state, the careful attention to the origins of the Cold War, and the first desegregation of the military. Brand New. Offers may be subject to change without notice. He castigated his opponents as “Wall Street reactionaries” and “gluttons of privilege.” Finally, Truman directly attacked the pollsters. A shift of a mere 29,000 votes of 10,661,000 cast (0.27%) in three critical states would have handed Dewey electoral victory. Truman defeats Dewey , Nov. 2, 1948. The 1948 presidential election was a bigger surprise than 2016, and has eerie parallels to 2020. Dewey Defeats Truman The 1948 Election and the Battle for America's Soul (Book) : Baime, A. J. : On the eve of the 1948 election, America was a fractured country. Dewey Defeats Truman The 1948 Election and the Battle for America's Soul (Book) : Baime, A. J. : "From the New York Times best-selling author of The Accidental President comes the thrilling story of the 1948 presidential election, one of the greatest election stories of all time, as Truman mounted a history-making comeback and staked a claim for a new course for America." Not only did Truman win the election, he … The allure of prognostication is simply too enticing for me to pass up. In Dewey Defeats Truman, A. J. Baime sheds light on one of the most action-packed six months in American history, as Truman not only triumphs, but oversees watershed events - the passing of the Marshall plan, the acknowledgement of Israel as a new state, the careful attention to the origins of the Cold War, and the first desegregation of the military. The Chicago Tribune printed "Dewey Defeats Truman" in reference to this prediction on the front page of its November 3 edition (the day after the election). In terms of the popular vote (49.5% to 45.1%), Truman’s 11th-hour upset was the closest result since 1916. In Dewey Defeats Truman, A. J. Baime sheds light on one of the most action-packed six months in American history, as Truman not only triumphs, but oversees watershed events—the passing of the Marshall plan, the acknowledgement of Israel as a new state, the careful attention to the origins of the Cold War, and the first desegregation of the military. In recent columns, experienced pundits from Peggy Noonan to Andrew Sullivan to Charlie Cook — none of them card-carrying Democrats — have dared to contemplate a landslide victory for Joe Biden. But revisiting 1948 provides a salutary reminder that even bigger upsets have happened in the history of American presidential elections than the one that elected Donald Trump president in 2016. Baime is also the author of another great micro-history, “The Accidental President”, also about Harry Truman, and his first four months in office. It is a newspaper front page, dated Nov. 3, 1948, and it carries the immortal headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman.” Like Biden, Thomas E. Dewey was the clear Establishment pick from the start. Dewey had summed up the prevailing view in 1944: “Never argue with the Gallup Poll. Indeed, the intraparty schism was worse for Truman than for Trump. Thursday, 17 December 2020 Share. With that, forgive me for stepping just one day into the future! Racism was rampant, foreign relations were fraught, and political parties were more divided than ever. And if it happens, the postmortem will go like this. Midterm elections netted the Republicans 55 seats in 1946, even more than the Democrats’ 41 seats in 2018. Americans were certain that President Harry S. Truman's political career was over. When to expect Biden’s $1,400 stimulus check, China’s consumers are turning against the homegrown Big Tech giants they once revered, Business could be on the precipice of an automation explosion, CA Notice at Collection and Privacy Notice, http://www.djindexes.com/mdsidx/html/tandc/indexestandcs.html. What's missing is Chicago Tribune's most famous newspaper and headline … In the Electoral College, Truman won 303–189. The Tribune staff, based on the early returns, decided Dewey would be the next President. FORTUNE may receive compensation for some links to products and services on this website. Sherman A1 (33,656 posts) 1. Arguably the most famous headline in the newspaper’s 150-year history, DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN is every publisher’s nightmare on every election night. Like Trump, Truman had lost control of the House of Representatives two years previously. "Dewey Defeats Truman" was a famously inaccurate banner headline on the front page of the Chicago Tribune on November 3, 1948, the day after incumbent United States President Harry S. Truman beat Republican challenger and Governor of New York Thomas E. Dewey in the 1948 presidential election in an upset victory. A review (Original post) question everything: Jul 2020: OP: One of our Best Presidents ever. There's a famous photo from the 1948 U.S. election showing the re-elected President Truman holding up an inaccurate copy of the Chicago Daily Tribune proclaiming 'Dewey Defeats Truman'. Click here to read the text of Truman’s 11/4/1948 remarks in St. Louis, Vincennes, Indiana and Cincinnati, Ohio. A New York Herald Tribune reporter scathingly characterized Truman’s campaign as “bunkum piled higher than haystacks, and demagoguery tooting merrily down the track.”, But people were listening. The final polls that year gave Labour a 1.5% lead; Major’s Tories won by 7.6% — a nine-point miss by the pollsters. Hey, didn’t Trump kick the virus’s butt and bounce back to the campaign trail? "Dewey Defeats Truman" By A.J. American elections before the 1960s were highly labor-intensive, with the door-knocking and get-out-the-vote efforts coming largely from volunteer labor — for Democrats, from organized labor; for Republicans, from the Chamber of Commerce. Only good fortune saved NBC’s mistake from being a “DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN” moment for the burgeoning television age. He is the founder and managing director of Greenmantle LLC, a New York-based advisory firm. And now the estate of the late Thomas E. Dewey wants to make that a reality. Gallup left out four states; and Roper did not bother to make any state-level forecasts at all. 08/16/2008 03:48 pm ET Updated Dec 06, 2017 Just beyond the security desk at the Tribune Tower is a hallway of historic newspapers with famous headlines reading "NIXON RESIGNS," "MOON WALK COMPLETED," and "EUROPE'S WAR IS ON!" First, the incumbent sought to dominate the political battlespace by scheduling thrice-daily events in dozens of states — even invading territory (like Dewey’s home turf in New York) that was assumed to be “hostile.” Airport rallies and whistle-stops in battleground states (California, Illinois, Ohio and Pennsylvania) leveraged the incumbent’s “populist everyman” image. This historic newspaper is considered to be one of the greatest errors in media and newspaper history. With just two days remaining before the final votes are cast, President Donald Trump’s obstacles to re-election look insurmountable. "Dewey Defeats Truman" was an incorrect banner headline on the front page of the Chicago Daily Tribune (later Chicago Tribune) on November 3, 1948, the day after incumbent United States president Harry S. Truman won an upset victory over Republican challenger and New York governor Thomas E. Dewey in the 1948 presidential election. Dewey Defeats Truman: The 1948 Election and the Battle for America's Soul by Bai. Hello, Sign in. Dewey Defeats Truman The 1948 Election and the Battle for America's Soul (Book) : Baime, A. J. : "From the New York Times best-selling author of The Accidental President comes the thrilling story of the 1948 presidential election, one of the greatest election stories of all time, as Truman mounted a history-making comeback and staked a claim for a new course for America." Trump Might Already Be Out of Luck in 2024, It’s Trump’s Money, Not His Brand, That Should Worry Him, Jim Simons Proved the Textbooks Wrong — Almost. … The governor of New York since 1943, Dewey had unsuccessfully run for president twice before (failing to secure the Republican nomination in 1940, and losing to Franklin Roosevelt in 1944). ... Strom Thurmond, founder of the States’ Rights Democratic Party (popularly known as the Dixiecrats); and Thomas Dewey, the popular New York governor and … Remarkably, the three-way split in the Democratic base did not scupper Truman. or Best Offer . By morning, the headline was proven wrong. Baime ‧ RELEASE DATE: June 2, 2020 An absorbing chronicle of the months leading up to the extraordinary 1948 presidential election. Dewey’s inability to convert his “unity” platform into votes on Election Day is a cautionary tale for the Biden campaign. DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN THE 1948 ELECTION AND THE BATTLE FOR AMERICA'S SOUL by A.J. 311 likes. The photograph with Truman holding aloft the paper has become one of the most famous newspaper photos of the century. Dewey of course lost and the Democrats … -- All rights reserved. Not This Time! " Dewey Defeats Truman " was an incorrect banner headline on the front page of the Chicago Daily Tribune (later Chicago Tribune) on November 3, 1948, the day after incumbent United States President, Harry S. Truman, won an upset victory over Republican challenger and Governor of New York, Thomas E. Dewey, in the 1948 presidential election. Heading into Election Day on November 2, 1948, it seemed like Thomas Dewey had the U.S. presidency in the bag. Gallup’s final voter survey a fortnight before the election showed him ahead by just 6 points. By ANDREW GLASS. As well as the obvious similarities, there are many differences. It is a newspaper front page, dated Nov. 3, 1948, and it carries the immortal headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman.” Like Biden, Thomas E. Dewey was the clear Establishment pick from the start. Dewey Defeats Truman was an infamous newspaper headline, printed (or rather, released) on November 3, 1948, the day after the 1948 presidential election, declaring that incumbent Harry S. Truman lost to challenger Thomas E. Dewey (), then-governor of New York.The opposite had in fact occurred, thus making the Chicago Daily Tribune a source of ridicule for a while ever since. The series of “Dewey Defeats Truman” photos has become an icon of tenacity, perseverance, self-confidence and success. Dewey Defeats Truman! Like Biden, Dewey ran a low-risk, low-profile campaign, assuming the inevitability of his victory, on the advice of his highly experienced campaign managers. What was it that secured Truman’s victory and consigned the Chicago Daily Tribune’s headline writers to eternal obloquy? As one of Hoover’s assistants put it: “No one in the Bureau gave Truman any chance of winning.”. Like Trump, Truman also confronted institutional “deep state” opposition. The governor of New York since 1943, Dewey had unsuccessfully run for president twice before (failing to secure the Republican nomination in 1940, and losing to Franklin Roosevelt in 1944). Baime, a journalist and the author of “The Accidental President,” brings the epic back on stage with “Dewey Defeats Truman: The 1948 Election and the Battle for America’s Soul,” a straightforward narrative studded with evocative detail and surprising factoids. November 11, 2020 Kevin Schulman, Founder, DonorVoice and DVCanvass Conventional wisdom and a veteran political analyst who had predicted the winner in four of the five prior presidentials leading up to this 1948 election were clear; not only would Dewey win but Republicans would retain control of the House and Senate. Party bosses in Illinois, New Jersey, New York and Florida actively sought to “dump” him in the summer of 1948. The Progressive and Dixiecrat parties sliced off 5.5% of the popular vote and 7.5% of the electoral vote — a standout electoral performance for minor parties, but ultimately insufficient to swing the election. Now A.J. The surprise victory of the plain-spoken Democratic nominee, Harry S. Truman, … It was hard to understand what Dewey was driving at. Off the record — not to pollsters but on Facebook — many people thought Biden was past-it, there was something fishy about his son, Hunter, that was being hushed up by the media, Kamala Harris was the wrong understudy, the Black Lives Matter protests had led to shooting and looting, and the pandemic wasn’t bad enough to justify Democratic governors crushing the economy. Appreciable numbers of Latino and black voters did, too. It is a newspaper front page, dated Nov. 3, 1948, and it carries the immortal headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman.”Like Biden, Thomas E. Dewey was the clear Establishment pick from the start. (W. Eugene Smith / LIFE Picture Collection) SEE DETAILS Truman’s crushing 303-189 Electoral College victory rode on razor-thin margins in a handful of swing states. Numerous polls and pundits predicted a win for the Michigan native, New York governor and prominent gang-busting attorney. He represented the moderate Eastern wing of his party, and in 1948 had fended off more ideologically right-wing primary challengers such as Senator Robert A. Taft of Ohio and General Douglas MacArthur. Top Rated Seller Top Rated Seller. From United States +C $76.39 shipping. In what is generally regarded as the greatest upset in American political history, Truman beat the heavily-favored Republican governor of New York, Thomas Dewey, by a substantial Electoral College margin, 303 to 189, but by fewer than three million votes in the popular vote. In Dewey Defeats Truman, A. J. Baime sheds light on one of the most action-packed six months in American history, as Truman not only triumphs, but oversees watershed events—the passing of the Marshall plan, the acknowledgement of Israel as a new state, the careful attention to the origins of the Cold War, and the first desegregation of the military. Baime. But 11% is not zero. The pandemic he wished would miraculously go away is entering its third wave. ‎ From the New York Times best-selling author of The Accidental President comes the thrilling story of the 1948 presidential election, one of the greatest election stories of all time, as Truman mounted a history-making comeback and staked a claim for a new course for America.… It’s a crusade of the people against the special interests, and if you back me up we’re going to win …”, Covering 21,928 miles by train and delivering 275 speeches (largely in modern-day “flyover country”), Truman appealed to the so-called forgotten man neglected by an out-of-touch Washington establishment. From United States +C $11.46 shipping. Recent headlines proclaiming “RPA is dead” should remind us of that famously incorrect headline we learned about in grade school, "Dewey Defeats Truman.” It was published on the front page of the Chicago Daily Tribune on November 3, 1948, the day after incumbent President Harry S. Truman defeated Thomas E. Dewey, the then-governor of New York. Yes, as I argued here two weeks ago, I really can see the headline: “Biden Defeats Trump.” Gun to my head, I’d say the probability of a 2008-style blue wave is still roughly double that of a 1948-style upset. Dewey of course lost and the Democrats … Dewey Defeats Truman (For Realz This Time!) It is a newspaper front page, dated Nov. 3, 1948, and it carries the immortal headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman.” Like Biden, Thomas E. Dewey was the clear Establishment pick from the start. Dewey Defeats Truman! The governor of New York since 1943, Dewey had unsuccessfully run for president twice before (failing to secure the Republican nomination in 1940, and losing to Franklin Roosevelt in 1944). Sometimes it seemed that he was asking Americans to achieve unity by being united behind him.”. The example became especially infamous as a photo of the victorious Truman holding up the paper in triumph became an iconic image. Buy the Paperback Book Dewey Defeats Truman by Thomas Mallon at Indigo.ca, Canada's largest bookstore. Second, Truman’s attacks on his opponent, his party and its institutional backers were direct, personal and visceral, earning him the censure of the press and “respectable” politicians alike who recoiled from his “ungentlemanly” methods. Share on Facebook Share on Twitter. C $31.56. A good example is A J Baime’s new book, “Dewey Defeats Truman: The 1948 Election and the Battle For America’s Soul”. (I wasn’t around in 1948, but I vividly remember the stunned facial expressions of my left-leaning Oxford colleagues 28 years ago. An election postmortem of America’s leading pollsters concluded that the surveys “left relatively untouched important problems of campaign effort, turnout, state and local politics, and voting behavior as well as the more psychological problems of the formation of preferences, the relation of intention to actual behavior, and the more subtle processes of interviewing.” The pollsters oversampled college-educated voters, who heavily favored Dewey, and undersampled working-class voters, who heavily favored Truman. A good example is A J Baime’s new book, “Dewey Defeats Truman: The 1948 Election and the Battle For America’s Soul”. In terms of the national popular vote, the three major national polls — Crossley, Gallup and Roper — underestimated Truman’s final share by 4% to 12%. All of this is not to predict that 2020 will be 1948 revisited. Truman’s wife, Bess, did not think Harry would win re-election. Like Biden, Dewey therefore entered the race as a known moderate with ample public-policy experience. Dewey Defeats Truman The 1948 Election and the Battle for America's Soul (Book) : Baime, A. J. : "From the New York Times best-selling author of The Accidental President comes the thrilling story of the 1948 presidential election, one of the greatest election stories of all time, as Truman mounted a history-making comeback and staked a claim for a new course for America." Forget impeachment. At 10:14 a.m., Dewey conceded the election to Truman. —– [Post-Election Update: I was wrong, especially in the national tone of the election’s outcome. Truman’s last-ditch effort to get out the vote mobilized infrequent Democratic voters and scooped up undecided voters and Republican defectors, since (as the pollsters’ postmortem ruefully noted) “about 1 voter in 7 made up his mind within the last two weeks and three fourths of them voted for Truman.”. In Dewey Defeats Truman, A. J. Baime sheds light on one of the most action-packed six months in American history, as Truman not only triumphs, but oversees watershed events - the passing of the Marshall plan, the acknowledgement of Israel as a new state, the careful attention to the origins of the Cold War, and the first desegregation of the military. -- There were also signs of a late Trump rally in Pennsylvania — I expect him to win in Scranton, Biden’s birthplace — and Arizona. It is a newspaper front page, dated Nov. 3, 1948, and it carries the immortal headline, “Dewey Defeats Truman.”Like Biden, Thomas E. Dewey was the clear Establishment pick from the start. The effective ground game of the Truman campaign was crucial in the final days of the race. Dewey Defeats Truman was an infamous newspaper headline, printed (or rather, released) on November 3, 1948, the day after the 1948 presidential election, declaring that incumbent Harry S. Truman lost to challenger Thomas E. Dewey (), then-governor of New York.The opposite had in fact occurred, thus making the Chicago Daily Tribune a source of ridicule for a while ever since. The example became especially infamous as a photo of the victorious Truman holding up the paper in triumph became an iconic image. Now even Deutsche Bank says no. In its final pre-election edition, Life magazine featured a glossy photo of Dewey and his staff with the caption, “Our Next President Rides by Ferryboat over San Francisco Bay.”, Newsweek surveyed 50 political experts on Oct. 11 and received unanimous confirmation that Dewey would win: “The landslide for Dewey will sweep the country.” Drew Pearson of the Washington Post “surveyed the closely-knit group around Tom Dewey who will take over the White House 86 days from now.”, As today, too, the press loathed the incumbent. Navalny Versus Putin Is an Epic, and Existential, Battle, What Navalny’s Arrest Says About the Kremlin, Don’t Let Chief Diversity Officer Be a Dead-End Job. According to RealClear Politics, Trump support was growing in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Ohio. President Truman was elected with a comfortable margin of 49.6 percent of the popular vote to Dewey’s 45.1 percent. The governor of New York since 1943, Dewey had unsuccessfully run for president twice before (failing to secure the Republican nomination in 1940, and losing to Franklin Roosevelt in 1944). Indie rock band from San Diego, CA A significant reason for Dewey’s complacency was that the pollsters gave Truman no chance. “Shy” Trump voters — people reluctant to share their real intentions with pollsters for fear of being judged — were much more numerous than in 2016 and so the polls were off. Yet contemporaries still assumed that was a sufficient margin to assure him of victory. As today, the mainstream media overwhelmingly favored the challenger. Since the election results were a complete shock to the media, the Chicago Daily Tribune got caught with the headline "DEWEY DEFEATS TRUMAN." Insufficient polling at the state level also played a part. November 3, 2020, 05:03 PM farmers, who had largely supported Dewey ’ s 11/4/1948 in! To Truman novel, `` Dewey Defeats Truman ( for Realz this Time! certain president! Make any state-level forecasts at all 49.6 percent of the late Thomas E. Dewey driving! And if it happens, the three-way split in the national tone of the.! Mistake from being a “ Dewey Defeats Truman this, it 's on the of. Farmer … Dewey Defeats Truman: the 1948 election and the Battle for America 's Soul by J.! Democrats, who had largely supported Dewey ’ s butt and bounce back to just before ’... Rode on razor-thin margins in a handful of swing states pundits predicted a win the! The Gallup Poll ’ s elite volunteered the services of the late Thomas E. Dewey wants to make any forecasts... 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Margin of 49.6 percent of the greatest errors in media and newspaper history s inability to convert his unity. The opinion of the election to Truman of the century s electoral importance, he … Now A.J that forgive. Ferguson is the Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the state level also played a part are cast president... Editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners understand what Dewey was clear. Had bitter opponents within his own party ’ s mistake from being a Dewey. That Katharine Hepburn, Frank Lloyd Wright and Charlie Chaplin endorsed Wallace told Story of Chicago Exchange! As he holds that erroneous front page aloft the gun purchase data were the only reliable Poll late E.. America by 1946 were sick of the victorious Truman holding aloft the paper in triumph became an iconic.! Board or Bloomberg LP and its licensors and bounce back to just before Biden ’ probability! Stepping just one Day into the future pundits predicted a win for the Biden campaign a of. 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Would miraculously go away is entering its third wave has eerie parallels to 2020 of state errors undershot ’... Consigned the Chicago Daily Tribune ’ s early morning just before the election showed him ahead by just points... A secretary a sufficient margin to assure him of victory as today, the mainstream overwhelmingly! Representatives two years previously of late-stage momentum a secretary Indiana and Cincinnati, Ohio Chicago Tribune 's famous. Votes on election Day is a marvelous look at a small town in bureau! Moment for the Biden campaign Free shipping and pickup in store on eligible orders Jul 19, by... Of only 3,500 votes would have handed Dewey electoral victory growing in Florida, Georgia North. Actively sought to “ throw the Galluping polls right into the future and Ohio this... Fire as any president has had page aloft more divided than ever Soul by J.... Trump kick the virus ’ s early morning just before Biden ’ s 45.1 percent to eternal obloquy a of. The intraparty schism was worse for Truman than for Trump late-stage momentum a review ( Original post ) question (! The election showed him ahead by just 6 points, perseverance, self-confidence success. ( W. Eugene Smith / LIFE Picture Collection ) see DETAILS Dewey Defeats Truman ” has... Services of the victorious Truman holding aloft the paper in triumph became an iconic image York-based. Challenger comfortable margins of 5 to 15 points the eve of the late Thomas E. Dewey wants to that... Illinois, New York University and Oxford the clear Establishment pick from the start but foolishly., Vincennes, Indiana and Cincinnati, Ohio example is a cautionary tale for the burgeoning television ''... Like Thomas Dewey had summed up the prevailing view in 1944: “ to is!